Advancing understanding of the complex nature of urban systems

Cities and urbanized regions are complex, dynamic, and highly integrated systems linking social, ecological, and technical infrastructure domains in ways that create deep challenges for good governance, policymaking, and planning. The combination of impacts from climate change in cities, air pollution, rapid population growth, multiple sources of development pressure and overall urban system complexity make it difficult for decision-makers to develop and guide development trajectories along more livable, equitable, and at the same time, more resilient pathways. Advancing urban sustainability and resilience agendas requires expanding the scope of inter- and trans-disciplinarity approaches, moving beyond the historically separate social–ecological and socio-technical approaches to jointly study social–ecological–technical infrastructure systems in cities. We take urban complexity as a given and suggest that in both research and practice we need to better capture and understand feedbacks, interdependencies, and non-linearities which create uncertainties and challenge the efficacy of governance practices to achieve normative goals for society. Here, we explore new methods, tools, and approaches to advance our understanding of urban system complexity through a series of journal special issue articles that examine urban structure–function relationships, urban sustainability transitions, green space availability, social–ecological memory, functional traits, and urban land use scenarios.     

Analysis of temporal change in delivery of ecosystem services over 20 years at long term monitoring sites of the UK Environmental Change Network

The drivers and pressures experienced by farmland, forestry and upland sites in the UK Environmental Change Network (ECN) over the last 20 years are reported through the lens of recognised approaches to the assessment of ecosystem service delivery. Temporal trends in ecosystem service delivery were examined using two methods: qualitative narratives and quantitative scoring of ecosystem service delivery according to land cover. While all sites included in this study are within the same national governance unit (i.e. UK), individual local management decisions were the main agents driving change, influenced by EU and national policies. Gradual change in focus from provisioning to cultural ecosystem services was a persistent trend across most sites, and apparent in both methods. There was generally no net loss in regulating services at the sites. The two methods were subjective but as data were not available for the breadth of ecosystem services present at the sites between 1993 and 2012, it was concluded that it is more informative for holistic assessments to draw on qualitative expert opinion than to ignore less quantifiable services such as many of the cultural services.     

A complex biogeographic history of diversification in Neotropical lancehead pitvipers (Serpentes,Viperidae)

Based on the literature, we had predicted that the diversification within the Neotropical snake genus Bothrops occurred along a latitudinal gradient from north to south, with diversification into unoccupied niches through ecological opportunity, not correlated with geoclimatic events. Using a dated phylogeny and estimating likelihoods of ancestral states at cladogenesis events, we reconstructed ancestral areas and assessed major events of the diversification of Bothrops clades, and we also discuss systematic implications for this group. Based on the phylogeny we produced, B. lojanus was not considered as part of the genus Bothrops since the results recovered this species nested within the Bothrocophias clade. We infer that the diversification of the Miocene Bothrops pictus and Bothrops alternatus clades may be related to the uplift of the western slopes of the Andes and the Argentinian Patagonian Andes, respectively. The Pliocene Bothrops taeniatus and Bothrops osbornei clades may be related to the uplift of the eastern and northern Andes, respectively. The Plio-Pleistocene Bothrops neuwiedi clade may be related to the habitat transitions from a warmer and forested environment to a cooler and open landscape; the Bothrops jararaca (i.e. island endemic species) and Bothrops lanceolatus clades to over-water dispersal with island speciation; and Bothrops atrox clade to the appearance of the Panamanian land bridge. We found that a multitemporal and multidirectional history of diversification may be correlated with geoclimatic and dispersalist events. We argue that the vacant niche hypothesis by itself does not explain Bothrops diversification.     

Analysis of amino acids in nectar from Silene colorata Poiret (Caryophyllaceae)

Nectar samples were collected from Silene colorata Poiret (Caryophyllaceae), in three different populations from south-western Spain: Zahara de la Sierra (Cádiz), Bornos (Cádiz) and Bormujos (Seville). Samples were analysed for amino acids by reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography with precolumn phenylisotiocyanate (PITC) derivatization. The method has the advantage of being highly sensitive, capable of detecting nanogram (ng) quantities of amino acids. Eighteen amino acids were identified and quantified. The mean number of amino acids in a nectar sample was 14 (SD = 2.8). Six amino acids (threonine, alanine, arginine, proline, tyrosine and methionine) were detected in all samples, accounting for 83% of the total amino acids content; proline and arginine were the most abundant amino acids, accounting for 40% and 20% of the total amino acids, respectively. The mean amounts of amino acids in nectar samples per population were 824, 782 and 356 µ m in Zahara de la Sierra, Bornos and Bormujos, respectively. Environmental variations such as temperature and sunlight are factors influencing the metabolic processes of nectar production. Our results may contradict the theory that the chemical constituents of floral nectar vary according to the kinds of pollinators.  © 2007 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society , 2007, 155 , 49–56.     

Climatic patterns in the establishment of wintering areas by North American migratory birds

Long‐distance migration in birds is relatively well studied in nature; however, one aspect of this phenomenon that remains poorly understood is the pattern of distribution presented by species during arrival to and establishment of wintering areas. Some studies suggest that the selection of areas in winter is somehow determined by climate, given its influence on both the distribution of bird species and their resources. We analyzed whether different migrant passerine species of North America present climatic preferences during arrival to and departure from their wintering areas. We used ecological niche modeling to generate monthly potential climatic distributions for 13 migratory bird species during the winter season by combining the locations recorded per month with four environmental layers. We calculated monthly coefficients of climate variation and then compared two GLM (generalized linear models), evaluated with the AIC (Akaike information criterion), to describe how these coefficients varied over the course of the season, as a measure of the patterns of establishment in the wintering areas. For 11 species, the sites show nonlinear patterns of variation in climatic preferences, with low coefficients of variation at the beginning and end of the season and higher values found in the intermediate months. The remaining two species analyzed showed a different climatic pattern of selective establishment of wintering areas, probably due to taxonomic discrepancy, which would affect their modeled winter distribution. Patterns of establishment of wintering areas in the species showed a climatic preference at the macroscale, suggesting that individuals of several species actively select wintering areas that meet specific climatic conditions. This probably gives them an advantage over the winter and during the return to breeding areas. As these areas become full of migrants, alternative suboptimal sites are occupied. Nonrandom winter area selection may also have consequences for the conservation of migratory bird species, particularly under a scenario of climate change.     

The Importance of Hydrodynamics for Protected and Endangered Biodiversity of Lowland Rivers

This paper examines the relationship between protected and endangered riverine species (target species) and hydrodynamics in river-floodplain ecosystems, combining ecological and policy-legal aspects of biodiversity conservation in river management. The importance of different hydrodynamic conditions along a lateral gradient was quantified for various taxonomic groups. Our results show that (i) target species require ecotopes along the entire hydrodynamic gradient; (ii) different parts of the hydrodynamic gradient are important to different species, belonging to different taxonomic groups; (iii) in particular low-dynamic parts are important for many species and (iv) species differ in their specificity for hydrodynamic conditions. Many species of higher plants, fish and butterflies have a narrow range for hydrodynamics and many species of birds and mammals use ecotopes along the entire gradient. Even when focussing only on target species, the entire natural hydrodynamic gradient is important. This means that the riverine species assemblage as a whole can benefit from measures focussing on target species only. River reconstruction and management should aim at re-establishing the entire hydrodynamic gradient, increasing the spatial heterogeneity of hydrodynamic conditions.     

SYMPATRIC CONVERGENCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CORRELATION BETWEEN TWO LAND-SNAIL SPECIES

In the southern Appalachian region of North America, the phylogenetically convergent shells of the polygyrid snails Triodopsinae Neohelix major (Binney) and Polygyrinae Mesodon normalis (Pilsbry) are even more convergent in size and shape in sympatry (7 sites) than in allopatry (23 and 10 sites). Environmental correlations account for 34% and 30% of size and shape variations in N. major (larger, taller, and more loosely coiled at northern, high-altitude, sheltered sites), but for only 14% and 9% in M. normalis (larger, flatter, and more loosely coiled at south-facing, exposed sites). The statistical significance of the sympatric convergence dropped out when these correlations were removed. This phenomenon helps account for the many cases in eastern North America of nearly identical land-snail shells in sympatry and questions the importance of competitive character displacement in the evolution of land-snail shell morphology. This apparently nonmimetic case of sympatric convergence provides an unusually precise and well-delimited, naturally replicated experiment in evolutionary morphology, which is analyzed for controlling factors in a follow-up paper.     

EVOLUTION AND EXTINCTION IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT: A QUANTITATIVE-GENETIC ANALYSIS

Because of the ubiquity of genetic variation for quantitative traits, virtually all populations have some capacity to respond evolutionarily to selective challenges. However, natural selection imposes demographic costs on a population, and if these costs are sufficiently large, the likelihood of extinction will be high. We consider how the mean time to extinction depends on selective pressures (rate and stochasticity of environmental change, and strength of selection), population parameters (carrying capacity, and reproductive capacity), and genetics (rate of polygenic mutation). We assume that in a randomly mating, finite population subject to density-dependent population growth, individual fitness is determined by a single quantitative-genetic character under Gaussian stabilizing selection with the optimum phenotype exhibiting directional change, or random fluctuations, or both. The quantitative trait is determined by a finite number of freely recombining, mutationally equivalent, additive loci. The dynamics of evolution and extinction are investigated, assuming that the population is initially under mutation-selection-drift balance. Under this model, in a directionally changing environment, the mean phenotype lags behind the optimum, but on the average evolves parallel to it. The magnitude of the lag determines the vulnerability to extinction. In finite populations, stochastic variation in the genetic variance can be quite pronounced, and bottlenecks in the genetic variance temporarily can impair the population's adaptive capacity enough to cause extinction when it would otherwise be unlikely in an effectively infinite population. We find that maximum sustainable rates of evolution or, equivalently, critical rates of environmental change, may be considerably less than 10% of a phenotypic standard deviation per generation.